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Reading the IPO market’s tea leaves

Although it’s a truncated holiday week here in the United States, there’s been a bushel of IPO news. This morning, we’re going to sort through the updates and come up with a series of sentiment calls regarding these public offerings.

The Exchange explores startups, markets and money. 

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Here’s what’s in our basket of news items this morning:

Marqeta‘s first IPO price range (fintech)
1st Dibs‘ first IPO price range (e-commerce)
Zeta Global‘s IPO pricing (martech)
The start of SoFi trading post-SPAC (fintech)
The latest from BarkBox (e-commerce)

A brief note on why we care to do all this work:

We care because it’s worth knowing what current demand is for venture-backed shares on the public markets. The third quarter is expected by many in the private markets to be an active period for exits. So, for founders, investors, and a host of technology startup employees, we’re gearing up for a busy period.

And today’s IPO climate could be the on-ramp to that rush of unicorn liquidity. So let’s understand where we’re starting through the prism of debut updates en masse.

Marqeta

First IPO price range: $20 to $24 per share
Max IPO raise: $1,254,545,448
Implied simple valuation range: $10.6 billion to $12.7 billion

The last known private-market value of Marqeta was set in May 2020, when the company raised $150 million at what PitchBook estimates was a $4.3 billion valuation. From that perspective, the company could up to triple its final private valuation in its public debut. There was some other money sloshing around the company since that May round, however, so its pricing could have shifted some in the intervening months.

Our read is that even if Marqeta does not raise its IPO range, its pricing is bullish, and if it does raise its range, it could become even more so. At a flat $12 billion price, the company’s Q1 2021 run rate puts it on a 27.8x revenue multiple. That’s rich.

1st Dibs

First IPO price range: $18 to $21 per share
Max IPO raise: $138,862,500

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