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Dollar Down Over Weaker-Than-Expected U.S. Data

Forex34 minutes ago (Oct 18, 2021 11:53PM ET)

(C) Reuters.

By Gina Lee – The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, remaining near the bottom of its recent range. Weaker-than-expected U.S. factory data and increasing bets that monetary policy will normalize faster in other countries also contributed to the U.S. currency’s losses.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was down 0.23% to 93.727 by 11:44 PM ET (3:44 AM GMT).

The USD/JPY pair edged down 0.15% to 114.14.

The AUD/USD pair was up 0.50% to 0.7447, with the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting released earlier in the day. The NZD/USD pair gained 0.55% to 0.7122.

The USD/CNY pair was down 0.25% to 6.4127 and the GBP/USD pair was up 0.30% to 1.3767.

The dollar has stayed in a range between 93.671 and a one-year high of 94.563 hit last Tuesday for the past three weeks. However, with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s asset tapering in November and a first interest-rate increase in 2022 already priced in, the dollar has been on a downward trend.

“The sense that ‘transitory’ inflation will last longer than previously thought has been the main catalyst” as “the market re-calibrated rate hike expectations in most jurisdictions,” Westpac analysts said in a note.

However, the U.S. is likely to be insulated by energy market bottleneck that is “casting an ongoing cloud over rebound prospects in Europe and China,” which “should leave yield spreads at the front end continuing to drift in the dollar’s favour,” with pullbacks in the dollar index limited to 93.70, the note added.

Data released on Monday in the U.S. showed that industrial production contracted 1.3% month-on-month and grew a smaller-than-expected 4.6% year-on-year, in September.

“Our strong dollar forecast published in early July reflected, among other things, U.S. economic outperformance, but the dollar’s drivers may be changing,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) strategist Joseph Capurso said in a note.

“The spike in global inflation and interest rates may support the dollar as a safe haven if short-term interest rates price in a global monetary tightening cycle that it so strong it forces equities to correct lower,” with evidence of that scenario likely seen in a decline in USD/JPY and AUD/JPY, the note added.

Dollar Down Over Weaker-Than-Expected U.S. Data

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